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October 13, 2023

Tractor Sales continue to decline

September has seen a continuation of the decline in sales for agricultural tractors in Australia with around 1,000 units only being sold in the month compared to around 1,500 units in the same month last year. This now means that on a year to date basis, the industry is down 23% on last year.

It is now quite evident that the industry is headed for a subdued period as a result of a number of factors including the recently declared El Niño for Eastern Australia.

Whilst spring rains have been helpful and their remains the prospect of a reasonable harvest season, a more pessimistic mood is now being seen among farmers leading to declines in demand for new machinery.

As we have been saying for some time now, the industry has come off 2 years of sales that were 50% ahead of what is normally considered a good year of 12,000 tractors. This year’s forecast presently has us at this number for the year however the trend line is indicating further falls to come in 2024.

Looking around the nation, all states have experienced significant drops in the month, beginning with Queensland, down 46% against the same month last year to be 21% behind year to date. NSW was down 43% to be 24% off YTD, Victoria was off 29% and is now 28% behind year to date.  Sales in Western Australia reported a drop of 28% and remains 22% behind last year. South Australia recorded a 40% decline and now sits 16% behind YTD and Tasmania was off 2% for the month, 22% down YTD with sales in the NT finishing 100% up but remaining 13% down YTD.

Falls were experienced in all machine categories where we find that the small under 40 hp (30kw) category was down by 32% for the month and is now 22% behind year to date. The 40 to 100hp (30-75kw) range was also down 46% and is now 24% behind year to date, the 100 to 200hp (75-150 kw) category was down, this time by 36% and remains 26% behind YTD and finally the 200 hp (150kw) PLUS range slipped, down 29% remaining 17% behind last year.

Sales of Combine Harvesters experienced a lift this month with around 500 units delivered in the year so far which is 22% up on the same time last year. With reports of a strong winter harvest and expectations of a healthy summer crop, we appear to be in for another outstanding year ahead for combines. Baler sales enjoyed another healthy rise and are now 13% ahead on a year-to-date basis and sales of Out – Front Mowers remain in line with the same time last year.

The TMA Dealer Business Sentiment Survey was conducted in August with around 100 dealers contributing. The results, which can be found on our website at www.tma.asn.au demonstrate an overwhelming expectation for reduced trading in the period ahead which will deliver a whole new set of challenges for the industry.